Many are of the opinion that by Thanksgiving we know which teams will make the playoffs. I tend to think it’s mostly true. For some teams it’s obvious they are already out of the playoffs. It’s the teams who are in the “mix” who are interesting to follow. Predictions for the 2024-25 season The Jets have cooled off. The Hurricanes are hot and at the top of the standings. I doubt Martin Necas will be able to keep his current pace for the rest of the season.

Alright, first predictions and power ranking for the 2024-25 season. It’s still early but nonetheless interesting to see what the beginning of the season has given us. I made only minor corrections to the model. Most significantly, I give less weight to blowouts. Teams take their goalies earlier than ever and even will event take the goalie out when loosing by two or three goals. Loosing by three, four, or five goals does not make much of a difference and the model now better captures that.

I thought that this would be over by now. The Oilers are more resilient than I thought. Predictions for the 2023-24 season The odds are still against the Oilers, but they have improved quite a bit. If they win the series, that will go in the books as one of the best comeback ever. Panthers (79.0%) vs Oilers (21.0%), 3-2: If the Oilers win tonight, the Panthers will still be favourite to win game seven.

The end of the season is near. Predictions for the 2023-24 season The probability of the Oilers making a comeback are very small. That would really be something, but that is just too unlikely to hope for it. Panthers (97.3%) vs Oilers (2.7%), 3-0: The Panthers are just the better team. They have all the tools. The Oilers have shown that they are very good, but not at the level of the Panthers.

It’s for the Finals! Time to cap-up the 2023-24 season. Predictions for the 2023-24 season I’m a bit surprised, but glad, to see the Oilers in the Finals. They did not beat the Stars by dominating them. They won game six against the Stars by shooting ten times on goal, while giving the Stars 34 shots. Meanwhile, the Panthers showed how strong they are by handling the Rangers, who won the President’s trophy.

The finals are near. In little over than a week the final round will begin. Predictions for the 2023-24 season The Panthers are still favourite for the Cup, followed by the Stars. According to the model, the probability of the Panthers winning the Cup is down 44%. Let’s update the third round match-ups. Rangers (33.3%) vs Panthers (66.7%), 2-2: The Panthers are dominating but the series is tied thanks to Shesterkin.

We are up to the semi-finals. I think we have great match-ups and that it should give us exciting semis. Predictions for the 2023-24 season The Panthers are favourite for the Cup, followed by the Stars. According to the model, the probability of the Panther winning the Cup is above 50%. Let’s look at the second round individual match-ups. Rangers (21.8.0%) vs Panthers (78.2%), 0-1: The Panthers won the first game, in a close match.

At the risk of repeating myself, these series are showing us again this year that goaltending is crucial in the playoffs. Amazing how a goalie on a hot streak can change things. Predictions for the 2023-24 season The Panthers are favourite for the Cup, followed by the Stars. Let’s look at the second round individual match-ups. Rangers (67.0%) vs Hurricanes (33.0%), 3-2: Nice comeback from the Hurricanes but I doubt they’ll be able to win the next two games.

The series are showing us again this year that goaltending is crucial in the playoffs. Predictions for the 2023-24 season The Hurricanes are no longer favourite for the Cup after loosing the first two games of their series against the Rangers. It is the Panthers who are now favourite. Let’s look at the second round individual match-ups. Rangers (72.2%) vs Hurricanes (27.8%), 2-0: Shesterkin made the difference in game two.

Already a few surprises in this year’s playoffs. A lot of the first round series have been short, ending in four or five game. Predictions for the 2023-24 season The Hurricanes are still favourite and the Panthers second favourite. We already know that the Hurricanes and the Rangers will meet in the second round. The models favour the Hurricanes (67.4%) to win over the Rangers (32.6%). Let’s look at the first round individual match-ups.