A third of the regular season is already gone. It’s a short season and just a few games can swing the odds of a team making the playoffs or not. I’m sure there are plenty of surprises to come. Predictions The predictions below assume that all teams play all their games. That might not be the case and I’ll try to make adjustments to the predictions depending on what pans out.

It’s been a while since I’ve posted. There are now enough games played that I can run my model to simulate the new Nhl season. The league this year is split into four divisions and the schedule does not permit any game between teams from different divisions. This creates some challenges for my model. If I knew the divisions were split with teams of the same average strength, I could run my model and predict the Stanley Cup winner.

The Lightning won the Cup. Congrats to them. They will be favourite for the next season, whenever it is played. I would be surprised if there is a 2020-21 season. TV ratings have not been great and television rights do not appear to be enough for the league to be profitable. Power ranking A last look at the power ranking. It’s fitting that the Lightning finish on top. The Stars are in seventh position, up two ranks from my last post.

The Stars are the first team to make it to the finals. They are peaking at the right time. Predictions for the 2019-20 season The Lightning are almost done with the Islanders, leading 3 games to 1. They are largely favoured to win the Cup although we should not discount the Stars who have been a big surprised. Table 1: Predictions for end of season standings in the NHL

The semi-finals start tonight so I thought I should publish an update. I’m surprised the Stars beat the Avalanche but surprised are to be expected in NHL playoffs. Predictions for the 2019-20 season In the East, the Islanders are slightly favoured over the Lightning. I’m a bit surprised by that as the Lightning have been playing well. I do not agree with my own model here and I consider the Lightning the favorite to reach the finals and win the Cup.

The Canadiens outplayed the Flyers but lost in the first round. Luck is important in hockey and the Flyers had more of it. The second round of the playoffs is on. So far, all series are competitive. It’s surprising to see the Stars are 2-0 against the Avalanche. The following is based on games played up to August 25th. Predictions for the 2019-20 season Despite being down 2-0 against the Stars, the Avalanche is still favorite to win the cup after dominating in the first round.

Hockey has returned for a few weeks now but it still feel weird to watch playoff games in August. Especially games played in the afternoon in the middle of the week.

The following is based on games played up to August 17th. Montreal just lost 2-0 to the Flyers but that game is not included in the data.

The NHL is back! We are now in the playoffs after an elimination round that saw a few surprises. I did not simulate the outcome of the qualifying round and the round robin. These games are in the dataset and inform my predictions going forward. Besides, I give them a high weight as they give information about the current strength of teams.

Given the long break and that the games are played in two bubbles, I’m not sure how of the quality of my predictions. The model still measures performance at home and abroad but that might not matter much in these playoffs.

The NHL season was suspended because of the coronavirus. That was the right decision under the circumstances. This will be the last post of a while and perhaps for the rest of the season. Predictions for the 2019-20 season The Bruins and the Lightning at again the top two teams in the predicted standings. The Blues have been playing well and moved one spot to third in the standings. The Stanley Cup probabilities show that this would have been a hotly contested championship.

Teams still have between 12 and 15 games to play before the end of the season. I lot can happened in this last stretch. To learn about my model, check this post. Predictions for the 2019-20 season Not much has changed at the top over the last week. The Flyers continue their strong play and now hove the best odds of winning the cup, followed by the Lightning. There are now seven teams that have no chance of making of the playoffs.