NHL predictions and rankings - March 30, 2023
I can’t wait for the playoffs.
Predictions for the 2022-23 season
Will the Bruins beat the 1976-77 Canadiens record of 132 points? The odds are pretty good as their expected number of points is 131.56.
The top 12 teams now have 100% probability of making the playoffs. Only 5 teams are officially in the playoffs (Bruins, Maple Leafs, Hurricanes, Devils and Rangers). 10 teams have zero chance of making the playoffs while 6 teams are mathematically out of the playoffs (Canadiens, Blue Jackets, Coyotes, Black Hawks, Ducks and Sharks).
NHL predictions and rankings - March 24, 2023
We are in the last stretch of the season. More and more teams are seeing their chances of making the playoffs slipping away,
Predictions for the 2022-23 season
The Bruins are hot again. They are the strong favourites to win the Cup.
Despite their recent strong play, the Panthers are not in the playoffs yet. The Penguins haven’t been good lately and are seeing their chances of making the playoffs diminishing.
NHL predictions and rankings - March 16, 2023
Predictions for the 2022-23 season
The Bruins have cooled down a bit, loosing two in a row. They have, however, officially clinched a playoff spot. A the bottom, the Sharks are officially out of the playoffs.
For a few teams, the probabilities of making the playoffs is getting pretty slim. The Sabres and the Senators have about 5% probabilities of getting a playoff spot. It is less than 1% for the Red Wings.
NHL predictions and rankings - March 10, 2023
Connor McDavid is on pace for 154 points. It would be amazing to see him get over 150 points.
Predictions for the 2022-23 season
Teams have 20 or less games to play and the Bruins are almost already sure to win the President’s trophy. Eastern teams dominate and have together around an 85% probability of winning the Cup.
The race to the bottom now involves three teams: Ducks, Blue Jackets and Blackhawks.
NHL predictions and rankings - March 3, 2023
The trade deadline is today. I don’t expect any major trade to happen today as they have already all been done. A lot of movement this year and it will be interesting to see how it shapes the rest of the season.
My model does not adjust to trades other than through observing game outcomes. Thus, if a team makes a trade and starts playing better, then my model will capture that but it will take some time.
NHL predictions and rankings - February 23, 2023
The trade deadline is approaching. I’m looking forward to see whether big moves will happen.
Predictions for the 2022-23 season
The Hurricanes are having an amazing season but it is overshadowed by the Bruins, who haven’t looked better than now. The Ducks have an edge for the last position.
Table 1: Predictions for end of season standings in the NHL
Power ranking
Nothing new, the Bruins are on top. Eastern teams occupy the top five.
NHL predictions and rankings - February 16, 2023
The All-Star game is behind us and we are on the last stretch of the season. Let’s see which teams will trade to improve and which teams will trade to tank.
Predictions for the 2022-23 season
The Bruins are still on top but it’s been a bit more difficult lately. Their probability of winning the Cup has dropped below 50%. The Rangers have been playing very well and they are now the second favourite to win the Cup, although far behind the Bruins.
NHL predictions and rankings - February 2, 2023
We are at the All-Star break already. I used to love the All-Star game but I have lost interest and I haven’t watched it in several years.
Predictions for the 2022-23 season
The Bruins are on top, not surprisingly. The Bruins have played so well that we forget about how great a season the Hurricanes are having. They are on pace for almost 120 points. The Maple Leafs haven’t played too well lately and have dropped in the expected standings.
NHL predictions and rankings - January 25, 2023
Predictions for the 2022-23 season
The Bruins are continuing their domination and still have a more than 50% probability of winning the Cup. The Stars are the main challenger, with a 7.7% probability of winning the Cup. The Oilers and the Avalanche have been playing well and have climbed in the expected ranking.
Table 1: Predictions for end of season standings in the NHL
Power ranking
No surprise, the Bruins are still on top.
NHL predictions and rankings - January 18, 2023
For the rest of the season, I think what I’ll follow most closely is whether Connor McDavid is gonna get 150 points. He is currently on pace to get exactly 150 points.
Predictions for the 2022-23 season
The Bruins are dominating and alone at the top. They currently have nearly 50% odds of winning the Cup according to my model. The Maple Leafs have the second highest odds at 7.