NHL predictions and rankings - February 22, 2021
It’s been a while since I’ve posted. There are now enough games played that I can run my model to simulate the new Nhl season.
The league this year is split into four divisions and the schedule does not permit any game between teams from different divisions. This creates some challenges for my model. If I knew the divisions were split with teams of the same average strength, I could run my model and predict the Stanley Cup winner. But that is not the case, and some divisions are stronger than the others. I could possibly deal with that by using data from last season. However, teams have changed and their play last season does not represent how they play this season.
I chose to run the model only by division. This means that I do not predict the winner of the Stanley. The predictions do not go further than generating probabilities for teams winning their divisions’ playoffs and reaching the league’s semi-finals.
Predictions
The predictions below assume that all teams play all their games. That might not be the case and I’ll try to make adjustments to the predictions depending on what pans out.
North
It all seems already decided in the North: the Canucks, the Senators and the Flames are out of the playoffs. The Maple Leafs are favourite to reach the semi-finals.
Table 1: Predictions for the North division
West
The Wild and the Blues appear to be the two teams that will battle for the final playoffs spot. The Avalanche and the Golden Knights stand out as the two best teams.
Table 2: Predictions for the West division
Central
Another division where the teams who will make the playoffs seems already decided. Surprisingly, the Hurricanes are favourite right now to reach the semi-finals.
Table 3: Predictions for the Central division
East
It’s a bit tighter in the East for playoff spots. The Bruins are favourite to reach the semi-finals.
Table 4: Predictions for the East division