NHL predictions and rankings - March 3, 2023
The trade deadline is today. I don’t expect any major trade to happen today as they have already all been done. A lot of movement this year and it will be interesting to see how it shapes the rest of the season.
My model does not adjust to trades other than through observing game outcomes. Thus, if a team makes a trade and starts playing better, then my model will capture that but it will take some time. By the time the playoffs start, my model should have fully adjusted to recent trades.
Predictions for the 2022-23 season
The mighty Bruins are dominating and might have gotten better with the few trades they made. The Maple Leafs and the Lightning have improved too. What’s interesting is that they are practically certain to face each other in the first round. Currently, the model says that the Maple Leafs have a 62.6% probability of winning their match up against the Lightning. I’m not sure the probability is that high given the Maple Leafs know how to loose in the first round and how good the Lightning has been in the playoffs over the last three years.
I compared my predictions to those from FiveThirtyEight. The expected number of point predicted are similar. However, my model tends to yield a lot more certainty (higher probabilities) to the playoffs results. I’m guessing part of the reason is that the FiveThirtyEight model gives more weight to the previous season. For example, the FiveThirtyEight model gives the defending champion, the Avalanche, a 20% probability of winning the Cup. In my model, the probability is 3.7%.
Table 1: Predictions for end of season standings in the NHL
Power ranking
The Bruins are on top, what else to say? Among the teams likely to make the playoff, the Penguins and the Jets do not show very well. This is symptomatic of their recent level of play.
Table 2: Power ranking of NHL teams