Predictions for the 2021-22 season

The Panthers loss the last game of the season 10-2 against the Canadiens. I should perhaps drop that game as it makes the Panthers look worst than they are. I chose to keep it because the model should slowly correct that blip in the data and given that other teams have also slowed down at the end of the season, the question becomes which games should I remove and which one should I keep.

The column Qrt in the table below gives the probabilities of teams winning their first round match-up. Comparing to the predictions from The Athletic, mine are much less categorical. The biggest differences are that The Athletic favours the Lightning against the Maple Leafs and favours the Wild against the Blues. I can see that the Lightning can beat the Maple Leafs given that the Lightning is full of talent, the defending champion and were are talking about the Maple Leafs here. My model has that match-up pretty much as a toss-up. About the Wild and Blues series, I agree with my model and I think the Blues will surprise. That’s a team that has been showing better and better as the season advanced.

The Flames are the favourite to win the Cup.

Table 1: Predictions for end of season standings in the NHL

Power ranking

The Flames are at the top spot. The Panthers and the Avalanche dropped because they took a break at the end of the season. I expect them to get back toward the top in the next couple of weeks.

Table 2: Power ranking of NHL teams