A look back at the first round

The model did not do great in the first round, predicting 5 series out of 8 correctly. I’m not too concerned about it as there were two big upsets. Otherwise, the model predicted the Rangers to win against the Devils but got it wrong. The Rangers started the series well but then the Devils turned things around.

The figure below shows the winning probabilities of the top teams, that is the teams that were better ranked, evolved for each of the series. The probabilities are calculated the day after the games. Probabilities will change a little bit everyday as the outcome of a game affects the relative power of every teams. The Panthers were never really expected to win. They had a 30% probability of winning game 7.

Predictions for the 2022-23 season

The Oilers are now the favourite to win the Cup, followed by the Stars.

• Maple Leafs (62.3%) vs Panthers (37.7%): Can the Panthers cause another surprise? We never know with the Leafs but perhaps things have changed this year.
• Hurricanes (48.7%) vs Devils (51.3%): This should be a hard fought series given that the model is not identifying a clear favourite.
• Oilers (63.4%) vs Golden Knights (36.6%): I expect the Oilers will not have it easy against the Golden Knights. It should be a fun series to watch.
• Stars (70.5%) vs Kraken (29.5%): I don’t know if the Kraken has it for another surprise. This is the most lopsided second round series according to the model.

Table 1: Predictions for end of season standings in the NHL

Power ranking

The Bruins are still on top. I expect they will stay there despite losing in first round. For them to drop from the top would require the Leafs crushing the Panthers in 4 games.

Table 2: Power ranking of NHL teams