NHL predictions and rankings - May 16, 2022

Looking back at the predictions before the playoffs started, my model got pretty much all the winners of the first round, identified as the teams with the highest probabilities of winning, right. The one exception was the Maple Leafs vs. the Lightning where the model gave a tiny edge to the Leafs. Effectively it was a toss-up, so I can’t say the model forecasted the winner of that series wrong.

Predictions for the 2021-22 season

The Avalanche is still favorite to win the Cup. However, the second round should not be as easy with the Blues being a tough match-up. In the battle for Alberta, the Flames should win and I think it will be easier against the Oilers than against the Stars in the first round.

In the East, this should be the end for the Lightning, who haven’t rested much in the last two years but that won’t be easy for the Panthers. The Hurricanes should prevail against the Rangers.

Table 1: Predictions for end of season standings in the NHL

Power ranking

The Avalanche is on top with the Blues right behind. The second round involves teams ranked 1 and 2 playing against each other.

Table 2: Power ranking of NHL teams