A look back at the second round.

My model has not done great in predicting the outcome of the second round series. It predicted one series correctly (Stars vs Kraken). However, it gave about equal chance of the Devils and the Hurricanes to win their series. These playoffs have been quite difficult to predict. I’m sure I’m not the only one with a model that makes incorrect predictions this year.

The figure below shows the winning probabilities of the top teams in the second round. These are the teams who host the first two games of the series. The probabilities are calculated the day after the games.

Predictions for the 2022-23 season

The Hurricanes are favourite to win against the Panthers. However, given how the Panthers have played recently, their odds are probably better than those from my model. My model tends to give, perhaps, too much weight to games early in the season. I will consider giving more weights to recent games next season so that it better considers teams who have momentum.

The Stars are favourite to win against the Golden Knights. This should be a good series.

The Hurricanes are favourites to win the Cup, but the Stars are not too far behind.

Table 1: Predictions for end of season standings in the NHL

Power ranking

The Bruins are still at the top of the power ranking. Given how well they have played during the season, they will stay there.

Table 2: Power ranking of NHL teams