NHL predictions and rankings - May 29, 2022


One more game to play and the second round is over. If the Hurricanes win, my model will have had a 50% success rate in the second round. The Lightning and the Oilers played much better than expected. The Blues fought hard but the loss of Jordan Bennington certainly did not help.

Predictions for the 2021-22 season

The Hurricanes have 72% chance of winning game 7 against the Rangers. If they win, they have a 52.7% probability of winning the series against the Lightning. If the Rangers win, they’ll have a 36.2% probability of winning the series against the Lightning.

The Avalanche is the favorite for the Cup with a 38% probability. The Lightning strong play in the second round means that its probability of winning the Cup has improved to 25%.

Table 1: Predictions for end of season standings in the NHL

Power ranking

The Avalanche is still on top and the Lightning now claims the second spot. The Hurricanes and the Oilers respectively occupy the 5th and 6th spot.

Table 2: Power ranking of NHL teams