NHL predictions and rankings - June 27, 2022
The 2021-22 season is done. The next update should be sometime in November or December when there are a few games played of the 2022-23 season. I might write an ex post analysis of my predictions for the 2021-22 season, but I do not know when, if that happens.
Predictions for the 2021-22 season
The Avalanche won! In my first predictions on December 5, 2021, the Avalanche had a 5.7% probability of winning the Cup. On January 9, 2022, that probability had grown to 19.1%. Right before the playoffs, the Avalanche was second favorite to win the Cup with a 18.8% probability, behind the Flames at 24.1%. About a week later, the Avalanche was the favorite to win the Cup and then never looked back.
Table 1: Predictions for end of season standings in the NHL
Power ranking
The Avalanche finishes on top, far ahead of the other teams. Fittingly, the Lightning is second.
Table 2: Power ranking of NHL teams