NHL predictions and rankings - November 5, 2023
We are already about ten games in the 2023-24 season. Here are the first predictions and power ranking of the new season. I plan on publishing weekly updates although they may be a more occasional at the beginning of the season.
I haven’t made significant changes to the model compared to last year. I adjusted down the weights for the previous season but otherwise it is the same model as before.
Looking back at last season, I think the model did very well except of the Panthers. There is no good way to foresee a Cinderella team. Luck is more important in hockey than in other professional sports and thus surprises are more bound to happen.
Predictions for the 2023-24 season
Surprise, the Bruins are not on top. But, even after losing their two best centers, they are number two and currently favourite to win the Cup.
The Golden Knights are doing great. This is not too common as teams who go far into the playoffs tend to begin the season tired. The Panthers are doing ok but not great. We’ll see if they can finish the season strong again this year.
The Canucks have started the season super strong. We can expect a reversion toward the mean for them.
The Sharks could not have had a worst start of the season. They’ll win a game, eventually.
Table 1: Predictions for end of season standings in the NHL
Power ranking
The power ranking closely mirrors the standings this early in the season. I expect it will change as the power ranking gives more weight to recent games.
Table 2: Power ranking of NHL teams