NHL predictions and rankings - December 19, 2021
COVID is once again wreaking havoc onto the NHL schedule. Several games have been canceled and participation of NHL players at the Olympic is becoming more and more uncertain.
Predictions for the 2021-22 season
The Hurricanes are still on top. The Maple Leafs are right below and currently have the highest probability of winning the Stanley Cup.
Comparing these predictions to those from FiveThirtyEight, there are, as expected, differences but they generally give similar results. The two models give the same five teams at the top five, although in slightly different orders. My model tends to produce more certain results, meaning that it give 100% probability of some teams making the playoffs and give higher probabilities of some teams winning the Cup: max probability is 21% for the Maple Leafs and the max is 13 % for the Hurricanes and the Avalanche in the FiveThirtyEight predictions.
Table 1: Predictions for end of season standings in the NHL
Power ranking
The Avalanche is still on top. Comparing my power ranking to those from The Athletic and NHL.com there are a lot of differences. Notably, these two rankings put the Avalanche on top while it is third in my ranking.
The ranking from The Athletic is informed but there is subjectivity in it. The power ranking on NHL.com seems to be based on the strength of players by teams. I think a lot of the differences of outcome come from the period considered. My model likely puts less weight in more recent games.
Table 2: Power ranking of NHL teams