We are the quarter season mark. If a team has dug itself into a hole, it’s hard to get out at this point. There are enough games played to get a good idea of which team will make the playoffs and which team won’t. Predictions for the 2023-24 season Surprise, the Bruins are no longer at the top. It was hard to imagine a week ago that they could lose three games in a row but that’s just what they did.

Happy Thanksgiving to my American friends. I’ve been back in Canada for almost five years and Thanksgiving in November is something I miss about the US. Predictions for the 2023-24 season The Bruins are on top and given the way they are playing, it’s hard to imagine that they won’t win the President’s trophy again this year. I’m surprised to see the Lightning this low in the predicted standings. Their record is not great so far this year and they have given more goals than they have scored.

We are already about ten games in the 2023-24 season. Here are the first predictions and power ranking of the new season. I plan on publishing weekly updates although they may be a more occasional at the beginning of the season. I haven’t made significant changes to the model compared to last year. I adjusted down the weights for the previous season but otherwise it is the same model as before.

Time for the Stanley Cup finals. I must admit the teams in the finals are not my favourites. I do not connect with teams where it never snows. A look back at the Conference finals The momentum in the Hurricanes vs Panthers series was with the Panthers who dismissed the Hurricanes in 4 games. That was a bit more exiting in the Golden Knights vs Stars with the Stars winning two games after losing the first three.

We’re done with the second round. The Conference finals begin on Thursday. A look back at the second round. My model has not done great in predicting the outcome of the second round series. It predicted one series correctly (Stars vs Kraken). However, it gave about equal chance of the Devils and the Hurricanes to win their series. These playoffs have been quite difficult to predict. I’m sure I’m not the only one with a model that makes incorrect predictions this year.

It’s been strange Conference Semifinals with so many blowouts. The Hurricanes are the first to reach the Conference Finals. The second round so far The figure below shows the winning probabilities of the top teams in the second round. These are the teams who host the first two games of the series. The probabilities are calculated the day after the games. There has been big swings in probabilities in the Golden Knights vs Oilers and the Stars vs Kraken series.

What a week it’s been. The big favourite and last year winner are out. A look back at the first round The model did not do great in the first round, predicting 5 series out of 8 correctly. I’m not too concerned about it as there were two big upsets. Otherwise, the model predicted the Rangers to win against the Devils but got it wrong. The Rangers started the series well but then the Devils turned things around.

The following takes into account the games played up to Saturday, April 22. There are 3 games played in each series. Predictions for the 2022-23 season The Bruins are the still the favourites but a few other teams have improved their odds of winning the Cup. Bruins (90.2%) vs Panthers (9.8%): The Bruins are leading 2-1. The probability have barely changed given the Panthers playing well. Maple Leafs (80.1%) vs Lightning (19.

The regular season is over and its playoff time. Finally, I hoping for a lot of good hockey. Predictions for the 2022-23 season The Bruins are the big favourite, no surprised there. According to the model, the probability they will win the Cup is 44%, which is huge. Let’s look at the first round individual match-ups. Bruins (88.9%) vs Panthers (11.1%): The Bruins will win, but I doubt it will be in 4 as the Panthers have been good of late.

Just a few more games and the season is over. McDavid is two points from the 150 points mark with three games to play. Predictions for the 2022-23 season The Rangers and the Oilers have been playing well recently and that shows in their increasing probabilities of winning the Cup. The Bruins are still the big favourites to win it all. Although the Senators, the Red Wings, the Sabres and the Predators are not yet mathematically eliminated, they have practically zero chance of making it in.